9.1 – National Skills Commission (2022) Employment Outlook – Industry and occupation trends over the five years to November 2026

Read the full National Skills Commission report

The National Skills Commission Employment Projections provide a guide to the likely direction of the jobs market over the next five years. Each year these projections are updated to reflect emerging trends and developments.

The 2022 report outlines:

Recent growth - A number of services industries made large contributions to employment growth over the five years to November 2021 including:

• Health Care and Social Assistance industry (up by 350,100 or 22.6 per cent)
• Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (209,000 or 20.5 per cent),
• Public Administration and Safety (153,100 or 19.9 per cent)
• Education and Training (133,300 or 13.6 per cent).

Recent falls in employment were in:

• Manufacturing (down by 107,800 or 11.1 per cent)
• Information Media and Telecommunications (down by 23,800 or 11.0 per cent)
• Accommodation and Food Services (down by 4,300 or 0.5 per cent) industries.

Predicted jobs and skills on the increase includes the following services industries projected to provide almost two-thirds (65.4%) of the total projected employment growth:

• Health care and social assistance
• Professional, scientific and technical services
• Education and training
• Accommodation and food services.

It is also predicted that

• Skill level 1 occupations (requiring a Bachelor degree or higher) will account for 52.6% of the projected employment growth with 77.7% of the growth to be in the Professionals occupation group with STEM professional occupations projected to grow by 14.2% (twice as fast as non-STEM occupations).
• Skill level 4 occupations (usually requiring a Certificate II or III) are projected to grow by 8% and skill level 3 occupations (Certificate 4 Certificate IV or III + 2 two years of on-the-job training) by 3.3%.

Go deeper

Read an overview of the National Skills Commission (PDF 500KB) report.

Explore the National Skills Commission (2022) National Skills Priority List and use the filters to identify shortages in South Australia.

Read the ABC News article Australia suffering dire skills deficit with occupation shortages doubling in 2022 published after the priority list was released.

9.2 – Lamb S, et al. (2017) Key Skills for the 21st Century: an evidence-based review

Read the Key Skills for the 21st Century: an evidence-based review report published by the NSW Department of Education.

The authors, Professor Stephen Lamb, Esther Doecke and Dr Quentin Maire considered:

• What are the skills future generations will need?
• What are the teaching skills for the 21st century?
• What are the assessing and evaluating skills required?

The review:

• detailed nine skills now commonly regarded as key (critical thinking, creativity, metacognition, problem solving, collaboration and cooperation, motivation, self-efficacy and agency, conscientiousness, grit and perseverance)
• found that while most systems have been active in developing learning frameworks and looking at ways to incorporate key skills into their curricula, and some have invested in teacher training and professional development to promote these key skills, there is limited evidence to date of a widespread and successful transformation of classroom practice and assessment
• most systems recognise that the key skills need to be developed through teaching disciplines and subject content, as well as potentially across subject areas; yet no school system can yet demonstrate a generalised and consistent focus on key skills across schools, subjects and year levels
• found that a judicious combination of various assessment methods, based on scores as well as qualitative assessment and determined by the assessment purpose(s) and the skill(s) being assessed, appears likely to improve the assessment of key skills and their acquisition by students
• provides international and Australian case studies.

Go deeper

Read a 2019 summary: Key skills for the 21st century: An evidence-based by two of the authors for an ACER research conference.

“Many systems and schools have invested considerable effort in broadening their conceptualisation of the skills young people require for their future. At the same time, there is little evidence providing clear direction on the most effective approaches to the teaching and learning of the identified skills, as well as the best ways to assess them.” (Lamb, S. et al. 2017)

9.3 – Learning Creates Australia (2021) Shifts and Flows in Learning and Work, 2021 research and discussion paper developed by Public Purpose and Kate Scott

Shifts and Flows in Learning and Work, 2021 research and discussion paper

Written from a ‘business/employer’ perspective, this discussion paper presents themes and insights from a short research project exploring the changing nature of the relationship between employers and young people in Australia.

It details 56 foundational skills – distinct elements of talent - associated with higher likelihood of employment, higher incomes and job satisfaction, trends in using traits analysis to select employees by looking beyond standard application processes, use of intermediaries between the young person and the employer, bridging the skill and work ready gap in the workplace.

Two overarching themes emerged:

• Material shifts in the system of work -These shifts are characterised by different expectations from different groups, including: a new emphasis on the role of intermediaries; stackable work experiences and portable skills as a new norm; and, a shift in trust and power dynamics between people and organisations.
• Learning in the flow of work - Learning is being integrated within work as an increasing demand for a broader and deeper conception of learning is embedded before, during and throughout our working life. It can happen through a fluid mix of facilitated experiences, within a work environment but also digitally, growing skills, capabilities and confidence through new forms of recognition and credentialing

The headline from the research is that the role employers play in how young people make a successful transition from learning to work is vital. Deeper understanding and engagement with intermediary organisations can help create more equitable employment pathways and opportunities for young people in vulnerable communities.

“Young people often can’t articulate or recognise they have these work-ready skills because they don’t always see them as valuable as what is being recognised in formal learning settings.” (Learning Creates Australia, 2021)

“After 20 years of learning, why are they not ready to work straight away? There is a growing divide between things we need from them in the workplace compared to what they are coming out with” (Learning Creates Australia, 2021)

9.4 – Google for Education (2022) Future of Education: Preparing for a new future

Read the report, including the ‘Ideas in action’: Future of Education: Preparing for a new future

This is the first of a three-part report on the future of education. Following a global study involving 24 countries that synthesizes insights from 94 educational experts, two years of peer-reviewed academic literature, and a media narrative

analysis across the education sector, the researchers concluded that the future is shaping up to look radically different from today and identified three key trends driving this shift:

• Rising demand for global problem solvers - As the world faces a new set of global challenges, education systems will become a central part of the solution, helping future generations embrace global mindsets and skill sets.
• Change in the skill sets required for work - As technology advances, education will focus on equipping students with the high-demand skills they’ll need to thrive in a new world of work.
• Shift to a lifelong learning mindset - As lifespans increase and societal change accelerates, the idea of lifelong learning is gaining traction, with more tools available for upskilling and advancement.

“The future is shaping up to look radically different from today. As educators work to equip students with the skills and mindsets they’ll need to navigate massive change and prepare for a new future.” (Google for Education, 2022)

“The global e-learning industry is forecast to be worth $1 trillion by 2028.” (Google for Education, 2022)

9.5 – Dery, K et al. (2020) Equipping and empowering the future-ready workforce

Read the research brief: equipping and empowering the future-ready workforce

In this research briefing the researchers describe/define five states of future readiness to help leaders map where their workforce is today and what it would take to orient it to being future ready. The five states of future readiness defined include:

• Passive Recipients - Traditional large companies typically start their journey by automating processes and delivering sufficient skill training for employees to effectively use applications. Employees are passive users of these applications, which provide a uniform interface for anyone in their role.
• Active Decision-Makers - As companies move toward utilizing cross-functional, customer-focused teams, employees begin to demand more from their tools and, at the same time, to experience a pressing need for more autonomy to make faster, better decisions.
• Empowered Problem-Solvers (the future-ready workforce) - Companies investing in more configurable digitized work are designing componentized technologies for both customers and employees. Employees’ knowledge and understanding of these components, together with the abilities to find, access, and use them, empowers non-IT specialists to work collaboratively with others to redesign where, how, and by whom work is done.  Empowered problem-solvers learn in fast cycles through experiments and rapid knowledge sharing. Enhancing their own digital skills and those of their workmates becomes innate.
• Hostage to Technology - When companies strongly pursue either Digitization of Work or Digital Fitness but fail to invest much in the other dimension, the efforts are compromised. Where the technology fails because people lack the competencies to unlock value, Where power bases built around closely guarded bodies of knowledge, and pockets of innovation that cannot be scaled.
• Hostage to Heroics. When people have high levels of digital competencies and problem-solving capabilities but use them to solve problems manually or create workarounds. Where power bases built around closely guarded bodies of knowledge, and pockets of innovation that cannot be scaled.

The researchers identified two dimensions to make the workforce future ready:

• Digitization of Work: Equipping employees with the right digital tools to do their work of today and to redesign their work of tomorrow
• Digital Fitness: Empowering and developing employees to work effectively in a company that is increasingly transforming to be digital

“Companies increasingly need their people to solve complex problems. As companies adopt data analytics, robotics, AI, and other digital technologies, what they demand of their employees is changing. We call a workforce that is confident to solve problems and skilled to work effectively in a digital environment a future-ready workforce.” (Dery, K. et al. 2020)

Other resources

Foundation for Young Australians (2018) New Work Order report series summary